Abstract

Understanding the evolution of centre-regional relations in Russia, their role in the current political system, the variation in the effects of the war on Russia’s regions and different regional actors and, more generally, the scope and limitations for change and (in)stability are of vital importance to Western policy-makers. Knowledge transfer and exchange on this topic is an integral part of the project which aims to enhance the understanding of potential trajectories of change in Russian state and society.

The project starts from the premise that there is model of centre-regional relations in Russia. (see Irina Busygina & Mikhail Filippov, Non-Democratic Federalism and Decentralization in Post-Soviet States, London: Routledge, 2024). This model relates to all regions of the Russian Federation (the only outliers being the city of Moscow and Chechnya). The main aim of the project is to test the resilience of the existing model during Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. It identifies, follows, analyses, and explains the evolution of Russia’s centre-regional relations and the sources of its territorial (in)stability by exploring the interactions between different levels of governance (federal, regional, and local). The changes under consideration are socio-economic inequalities and disparitites, formal and informal institutions structuring the current model of centre-regional relations and attitudes among regional and federal elites and in society more generally. It is hypothesized that these changes can lead to a gradual erosion of the existing model, for example in case of an increase in the popular legitimacy of the regional governors and their potential attempts to renegotiate their relationship with the centre. Growing interregional disparities, rising social discontent, disagreements over the costs of the war, incl. the high level of “investment” into the occupied Ukrainian territories, growing inconsistencies in the policy of the federal centre towards the regions and a resulting fragmentation of the central elites would make this scenario more likely.

The project will draw on available quantitative data sources to map socio-economic trends, political trust and attitudes. Its main empirical contribution consists of a series of regional case studies (for safety reasons not listed here) based on in-depth online interviews with local journalists, members of NGOs as well as experts and researchers from regional universities. Conceptually, the project contributes to the comparative literature on the role of institutions in modern autocracies, and the dynamic underpinning the (in)stability of authoritarian regimes.