Publikation

Aust, Helmut Phillip, Cindy Wittke. 2025. Ein gerechter Frieden für die Ukraine: Waffen und Verhandlungen sind zwei Seiten einer Medaille. Fünf Thesen zu den völkerrechtlichen und politischen Rahmenbedingungen. In: Internationale Politik, 4 ,64-70. Link.

Abstract

How can the war against Ukraine be thought of from a politically sustainable end? The aim of the project is to identify conditions for ending wars. The key question of the project is: How do ideas of peace influence the path to ending war? The aim of the project is (1) to identify requirements for peace agreements and future peacekeeping; (2) to draw lessons for negotiations from Russia’s conflict behavior; (3) to develop options, strategies, scenarios and possible formats for interim solutions; and (4) to work out contours for the future European security order. The project systematizes experiences of war termination and formulates requirements for a sustainable peace. The project builds a bridge between international law, political science, peace and conflict research as well as security research and includes female colleagues from the conflict region.

In the debates on the war against Ukraine, there are hardly any ideas about end states. It is unclear what victory or defeat of one side or the other or a “compromise” could mean. A negotiated end to the war based on a formal peace agreement is currently not in sight. At the same time, however, the legal, political and humanitarian challenges will increase with the duration of the international armed conflict. Neither side is likely to achieve its war aims with a one hundred percent victorious peace, and an external dictated peace seems out of question.

Wars are fought on the battlefield, but the underlying conflicts can only be resolved at the negotiating table and lasting peace can only be achieved through political dialog. The project assumes that peace negotiations “in good faith” with the political leadership in Russia are currently not possible or would not lead to a stable agreement. In turn, pressuring Ukraine to make concessions at the negotiating table would jeopardize its sovereignty and statehood and could lead to the political, legal, economic and cultural fragmentation of the country in the long term.

The project is based on three overarching assumptions. The first is that perceptions of the outcome of the war influence the end to the war to which the actors involved align themselves. Secondly, negotiations on ending the war gain momentum if there are prospects that commitments will be honored. Finally, war termination negotiations will start with suboptimal partial outcomes and “islands of agreement”.

The project consists of three clusters that build on each other: Cluster 1 formulates claims to peace agreements under international law. Cluster 2 examines under which political and legal conditions a ceasefire or a peace agreement can be secured and which forces, means and technical capabilities are required. Cluster 3 examines ideas of peace and negotiation strategies in comparison: What ideas on ending the war and which requirements for peace agreements are being debated among politicians and diplomats in Ukraine? What influences could lead to Russia being prepared to make substantial concessions? The planned results are six specialist articles, an anthology and transfer contributions for politics, the media and political education.